The NFL season marches on and my journey of placing way too many bets every week continues.
As always, you'll find my best side or total bets for all 14 NFL Week 6 games in this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets. As if betting on all 14 games wasn't enough, I decided to toss in 10 player props each week as well.
I had yet another 5-5 week with my player props in Week 6 finishing for -0.77 units. Thankfully, I'm still profitable on the season, sitting at 25-24-1 for +1.05 units.
Let's dive into my top 10 player props for Week 6.
Best NFL Player Props for Week 610) Josh Allen OVER 34.5 Rush Yards (-110)
The Jets' pass defense is strong, but they have struggled to stop the run at times this season, ranking 15th in opponent Rush EPA and 25th in opponent Rush Success Rate. That's likely going to lead to Josh Allen taking off with his legs more than he usually does on Monday night.
He has reached at least 35 rushing yards in three of his five games this season and this seems like another great spot for him to do exactly that.
9) Najee Harris OVER 66.5 Rush Yards (-115)
This game could be Najee Harris' time to shine. Not only is Jaylen Warren unlikely to suit up for the Steelers' Week 6 game against the Raiders, but Las Vegas has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They allow 4.9 yards per carry while ranking 28th in opponent Rush EPA.
Keep an eye on Harris to have his first big breakout game of 2024.
8) Kenneth Walker III OVER 60.5 Rush Yards (-133)
The Seahawks need to run the ball more than they have this season. They're last in the NFL in run play percentage, running the ball on just 32.61% of plays, despite Kenneth Walker averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per carry.
I envision them waking up to that fact on Thursday night and leaning on their run game against their divisional foe, the San Francisco 49ers, especially considering the 49ers have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this season.
If the Seahawks do look to their run game in this game, expect Walker III to soar over his set total of 60.5.
7) Michael Wilson Anytime TD (+350)
Michael Wilson still isn't getting the respect he deserves as the second-best wide receiver for the Cardinals. He's second amongst wide receivers in targets (26), receptions (19), and receiving yards this season and he has already found the end zone once.
Now he gets to play against a Packers defense that has allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this season, one of the highest rates in the NFL. If you want a bit of a dark horse to score this weekend, consider the Cardinals’ No. 2 receiver in Wilson.
6) Justin Herbert UNDER 190.5 Pass Yards (-117)
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers have a tough matchup ahead of them coming off their BYE week. The Broncos' pass defense has been unbelievably good this season, keeping teams to just 159.8 air yards per game and 5.1 yards per pass attempt.
Herbert has yet to reach 180 yards in a game this season so given the fact his passing yards total is over 10 yards higher than his season-high, I'm confident in betting on him to go UNDER his total in this AFC West showdown.
5) C.J. Stroud OVER 234.5 Pass Yards (-114)
The Texans' biggest strength on offense is their ability to air the ball out, which lines up well with the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness. New England ranks 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent Dropback EPA.
Don't let the lack of Nico Collins in the lineup scare you away from having faith in C.J. Stroud to ball out in this AFC matchup. Take the OVER on his pass yards.
4) Jayden Daniels OVER 224.5 Pass Yards (-114)
There's no question the Baltimore Ravens are elite at stopping the run, but they have struggled to stop the pass at times this season. They have allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt in 2024, which ranks 27th in the NFL, while also ranking 25th in opponent Dropback EPA.
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are going to have to throw the ball early and often if they want to keep pace with the Ravens' stout offense. If they do, he should have no issue reaching at least 225 passing yards in this one.
3) Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 57.5 Rush yards (-115)
The Cowboys run defense is atrocious. They're dead last in the NFL in opponent Rush EPA and 29th in opponent Rush Success Rate. That should set up the Lions' running backs to have big games against this defense.
With Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Montgomery's rushing yards totals both at 57.5, I'm going to back Gibbs based on the fact he's averaging 1.0 more yards per carry than Montgomery has so far in 2024.
2) Drake London OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Drake London and the Falcons' pass-attack got off to a slow start this season but he has exploded in recent weeks. He has now seen double-digit targets in two straight games and he's coming off a 154-yard performance against the Buccaneers.
Things will only get better against a Panthers defense that's 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.9) along with 31st in opponent Drop Back Success Rate. London is poised to have another big performance, fresh off a mini-BYE week.
1) Rome Odunze OVER 3.5 Receptions (+126)
When I look at the Bears' numbers so far this season the amount of targets Rome Odunze has seen jumps off the page to me. He has seen 29 targets in five games yet has hauled in only 15 of them. Those reception numbers should grow as long as he continues to be targeted early and often in these games.
Considering the Jaguars are allowing 26.0 completions per game, the fourth most in the NFL, there are going to be plenty of receptions to be spread around in Sunday's London game. I love that we can get plus-money on Odunze to haul in at least four of them.
