Thursday’s NBA playoff action features a pair of crucial Game 3s, as the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons are tied at one game apiece and the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers are as well.
The third matchup of the night is between the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies, but the Thunder are in a commanding 2-0 series lead after Tuesday night’s win at home.
The Knicks and Pistons have played an entertaining series, although some may think that Detroit should be up 2-0 if it wasn’t for a fourth-quarter collapse in Game 1.
In the West, the Nuggets and Clippers have played two instant classics, and it was Kawhi Leonard’s 15-of-19 shooting performance in Game 2 that allowed L.A. to even the series.
I’m expecting plenty of more drama on Thursday, especially since the Knicks and Pistons are basically set as a pick’em in the latest betting odds.
I have a pick for each game, including a prop for Nikola Jokic as the three-time league MVP attempts to regain home court for his team.
Let’s break down all of the plays for Thursday’s playoff drama.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 230-222-4 (-3.29 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1240-1167-26 (+34.80 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Detroit Pistons Moneyline (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unitOklahoma City Thunder -8.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.5 unitNikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unitJalen Brunson-Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Parlay (-157) – 0.5 unitDetroit Pistons Moneyline (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
The Knicks are slight favorites in Game 3, but when you look at this series, New York has been outplayed in seven of the eight quarters – all at home.
Now, the series shifts to Detroit where the Pistons were 22-19 in the regular season, including an impressive 11-8-1 against the spread mark as home dogs.
New York has become extremely reliant on Jalen Brunson, and that’s made it tough to trust this offense in Game 3. The Knicks saw Karl-Anthony Towns go the entire fourth quarter without a shot attempt in Game 2, and Mikal Bridges came up short on a trio of late 3-point attempts that could have altered the outcome.
All season long, the Knicks have struggled with the Pistons, going 2-4 against them (1-3 in the regular season). Detroit didn’t shoot the ball great in Game 2 – Malik Beasley was just 1-for-8 from 3 – but Cade Cunningham’s 33 points were enough to get the job done.
Through two games, there isn’t much to hang your hat on if you’re a Knicks bettor outside of the 21-0 run in the fourth quarter of Game 1.
I think Detroit’s been the better team in the series, and I like it to take a 2-1 lead in Game 3.
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.5 unit
Oklahoma City is 2-0 against the spread in the playoffs, winning by 51 points in Game 1 against Memphis and 19 points in Game 2.
The crazy part?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to have a good game, shooting 14-for-42 from the field in the first two games of this series. Yet, the Thunder are easily up 2-0.
OKC is a great bet as an 8.5-point favorite, as this Memphis team is on the brink of rolling over and calling it a season. Not only have the Grizzlies not beaten a Western Conference team that is over .500 since late January, but they have gone 0-6 against OKC this season.
The Thunder were money for bettors as road favorites during the regular season, going 23-12-2 against the spread, and I think they win this game in a blowout if SGA gets back on track.
Memphis has done nothing in this series to show that it can keep up with this Thunder attack.
Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
The Clippers frustrated Jokic a bit in Game 2, sending double teams his way more often than not.
That led to the three-time MVP turning the ball over a whopping seven times, but he still dished out 10 assists in the process. Through two games this series, Jokic has 22 assists, and he finished the regular season averaging over 10 a game.
So, I love him at even money to reach double digits again in Game 3.
If there’s one thing we know about Jokic, it’s that he’s always willing to make the right basketball play, and if the Clippers continue to double him, it’s going to leave players open for him to hit for assists.
While Denver may not love all the shots it gets out of Jokic doubles, the best player in the world is too good of a playmaker to pass up when he can find his teammates in a 4-on-3 scenario.
Jalen Brunson-Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Parlay (-157) – 0.5 unitJalen Brunson 25+ PointsShai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points
Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
I’m buying Brunson as a scorer once again in Game 3, as he’s taken 27 shots in each of his first two playoff games, finishing with 34 and 37 points for the Knicks.
Now, Brunson may need to get his supporting cast more involved to win in this series, but there’s no doubt that the All-NBA guard has been effective scoring the ball. He’s shooting 24-for-54 from the field and 6-for-17 from 3.
Last season, Brunson averaged 32.4 points per game in the playoffs and took over his fair share of games in Knicks wins.
I love him at this discounted number in this two-pick parlay.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points
It hasn’t been a good start to the postseason for SGA, but the MVP candidate still scored 27 points in Game 2 despite shooting just 10-for-29 from the field.
This is a prime buy-low spot for Gilgeus-Alexander, who averaged an NBA-best 32.7 points per game during the regular season.
Even if bettors are turned off by the poor percentages this postseason, SGA’s usage remains rock solid. In a road game against Memphis, he may have to play a few more minutes for OKC to truly put this game away, and the Grizzlies haven’t exactly stopped the star guard from getting to his spots in this series.
SGA scored 25 or more points in 68 of his 76 games in the regular season.
