Happy draft day! After months of speculation, Reddit rumors, mock drafts and ever-changing odds, the first round of the 2023 NFL draft is just hours away.
We’ve been keying in on every corner of the draft in the weeks leading up to it and you can find links to our coverage below. And during the draft tonight, our analysts will be reacting to picks in real time to help put into context what certain selections mean from a fantasy football point of view.
Before we get into how this seemingly unpredictable draft might play out, I want to let you know about some changes to the Winners Club schedule and format going forward. Starting next Wednesday, the newsletter will be coming to you once a week until July. When fantasy football preparation really starts to ramp up, we’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming.
In the meantime, Winners Club will still deliver the top stories from SI Fantasy and Betting to your inbox each week and you can keep up with us on Twitter @SI_Fantasy and @SI_Betting. As always, thanks for reading. And now, let’s get to the draft!
In today’s Winners Club you’ll find:
Odds to be first, second, third and fourth pickTeam needs heading into the draftSI’s final mock draftFantasy impact of the Aaron Rodgers tradeHeat upset Bucks, eliminating pre-playoff favoriteAfter Young at No. 1, Top of Draft Remains Cloudy
There’s quite a bit of mystery at the top of this year’s draft. Usually, there’s at least a few selections that seem like foregone conclusions this late in the process, but even now there’s questions about the picks — and potential trades — that will be announced this evening in Kansas City.
Let’s take a look at where the draft odds currently stand for the top four picks in the draft.
The Panthers have been on the clock since March 10, when they traded up with the Bears for the first overall selection, and a clear favorite has emerged to be the pick: Quarterback Bryce Young out of Alabama. There was a time when C.J. Stroud was the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 and there was quite a bit of Will Levis steam earlier this week in response to a Reddit rumor, but Young’s odds have become even further solidified ahead of the draft.
Odds to be the No. 1 pick
Bryce Young -5000
Will Levis +1000
C.J. Stroud +2500
Anthony Richardson +4000
Will Anderson Jr. +10000
The Texans could have owned the first pick were it not for a Week 18 win that dropped them to the second-worst record in the league behind Chicago. It’s unclear which direction the franchise wants to take. Draft a signal-caller? Take the best defensive player available? Maybe even trade back if Young is indeed off the board?
Odds to be the No. 2 pick
Will Anderson Jr. +150
Will Levis +200
Tyree Wilson +225
C.J. Stroud +450
Bryce Young +1000
The Cardinals are in great position to take a quarterback, but that’s one of the few positions this roster is set at. Arizona has been pegged as a trade back candidate, but it’s possible the team just stays put and infuses some young talent into its defense.
Odds to be the No. 3 pick
C.J. Stroud +225
Tyree Wilson +250
Will Anderson Jr. +275
Anthony Richardson +550
Will Levis +900
And then there’s the Colts. They’ve been linked to Kentucky's Levis and it’s unknown whether the front office feels the need to move up one spot to ensure no other quarterback-needy team jumps them for a signal-caller. Indianapolis does seem set on a QB, it’s just a matter of who’s available at the top of its board once it’s on the clock.
Odds to be the No. 4 pick
Will Levis +125
C.J. Stroud +150
Anthony Richardson +350
Will Anderson Jr. +900
Tyree Wilson +1200
With all of these odds top of mind, Craig Ellenport came up with a first-round mock draft entirely based on where the betting markets stand. It’s a potentially informative way to get an idea of how the board falls.
Albert Breer wrote about each team’s needs heading into the draft and took a stab at a mock draft of his own earlier this week. And Kevin Hanson closed the door on mock draft season with the SI’s final mock draft this morning. (First-round mocks, that is. The MMQB will have a mock for Rounds 2 and 3 Friday morning!)
Picks vary across these three sets of predictions, but there’s one key constant: Young is a Carolina Panther.
SI Sportsbook has markets available that allow bettors to wager on what position teams in the first round take with their first pick. Our writers delved into them and compared them with recent draft history, roster makeup and mock drafts to see how those picks might unfold.
Raiders | Giants | Jaguars | Lions | Eagles | Vikings | Bengals | Cowboys | Chiefs | Saints | Chargers | Jets | Packers | Bills | Buccaneers | Commanders | Bears | Ravens | Titans | Steelers | Patriots
SI Sportsbook also has plenty of other betting markets available for the draft. Wager on who will be the first tight end, wide receiver, offensive lineman or defensive player drafted and bet on how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round. Right now the line is set at 4.5 with juice on the over, which is good news for Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker.
Fantasy Football Draft History and Rodgers Reaction
In the lead up to a fresh batch of talent entering the NFL this evening and as the weekend goes on, Michael Fabiano documented the recent success — or, in some cases, lack thereof — of rookie quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in fantasy football.
Receivers are increasingly entering the league ready to contribute but that’s not always the case at other positions.
Fabiano also dove back in time to the 1983 NFL draft, which was a boon for fantasy football production with players such as as John Elway, Eric Dickerson, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.
And in case you missed the news earlier this week, it finally happened. Aaron Rodgers is a New York Jet.
The trade terms are as follows: The Packers send Rodgers, 2023 first- and fifth-round choices (Nos. 15 and 170) to New York for ’23 first-, second- and sixth-round picks (Nos. 13, 42 and 207). A conditional 2024 second-round pick becomes a first-round selection if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays.
Rodgers, who won MVP in 2020 and ‘21, had a down year in ‘22 but he’s heading to a better situation in the Big Apple from a fantasy football perspective.
Fabiano broke down what the deal means for Rodgers, the New York skill position players, Packers quarterback Jordan Love and Green Bay’s skill group.
In Other News
Heat Knock Off Bucks in Round 1: Miami rallied Wednesday night to pull off a massive upset against Milwaukee in overtime and win the series, 4–1. Jimmy Butler hit a wild shot to force overtime for two of his game-high 42 points.
NBA Title Odds Update at SI Sportsbook: The Celtics, who hold a 3–2 lead over the Hawks, are +165 favorites to win the title with the Bucks out of the playoff picture. Boston is followed by the Suns (+400), 76ers (+600) and Warriors (+650).
Knicks Beat Cavs to Advance to Second Round: New York dispatched Cleveland on the road Wednesday evening to take the series, 4–1. Jalen Brunson’s 23 points led the team, which won its first playoff series since 2013 and will now play the Heat in Round 2.
