The NFL action in Week 16 comes to an end on Christmas and sports bettors have a great opportunity to add some more holiday cheer with three games on Monday.
The game with the lowest projected total is surprisingly the matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. This AFC West battle has an Over/Under marked at 40.5 on SI Sportsbook with the Chiefs listed as 10.5 point favorites.
We then move from the AFC West to the NFC East with the New York Giants traveling down the New Jersey Turnpike to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants are the biggest underdogs of the week with the Eagles laying 13.5 points. Oddsmakers are projecting a lopsided scoring result in Philadelphia’s favor but the Over/Under is set at just 42.5 points.
Closing out the action on Monday is a potential Super Bowl preview with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are vying for the No. 1 seed in their conferences but the 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown (6.5). The projected point total on SI Sportsbook is set at 46.5 for this primetime matchup on Christmas night.
Why do we bring up the point spread and point totals for each of these matchups in a player props article? Well, we always want to know the perspective of the oddsmakers who aren’t just setting the lines for the overall game, but each individual player as well. Thus if we know the sportsbook think the Eagles will dominate the Giants but the game will remain relatively low scoring, that helps guide our decision on who and how many touchdowns will be scored.
With that being said, here are the Best Bets for Anytime Touchdowns on Christmas in the NFL.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks
Rashee Rice Anytime TD +120
Davante Adams Anytime TD +150
Lotto Pick: Patrick Mahomes +350
These AFC West rivals met earlier in the season on Thanksgiving weekend with the Chiefs scoring 31 and the Raiders putting up 17. A handful of the usual suspects scored in that game with Isiah Pacheco leading the way with two TDs. The Chiefs running back is expected to return this week after missing Week 14 and 15 with a shoulder injury. But no running back has crossed the goal-line against the Raiders since Pacheco in Week 12. In fact, Pacheco was the only back to run for a touchdown against the Raiders in their last six games. Las Vegas’ defense may have some flaws, but their run defense is not one of them.
Instead, we’ll focus on their rookie wide receiver that is quickly developing into Patrick Mahomes top target inside the 20 yard line. Rashee Rice is tied for second in the NFL with 20 red-zone targets. He’s scored in back-to-back games and has three touchdowns in his last four games including in that Week 12 matchup against the Raiders. Look for Patrick Mahomes to zero in on his breakout rookie playmaker, especially when the Chiefs are looking to put points on the board. With a payout of +150 for one of the best players on the field, this return on investment is too good to pass up.
I mentioned Rice is tied for the second most redzone targets this season and the player he’s tied with is Raiders superstar Davante Adams. The veteran playmaker is coming off his best game of the year since Week 3 and seemingly found some chemistry with quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
For a Lotto Pick on Anytime Touchdown, I’m rolling with the reigning MVP. Mahomes has at least two rushing touchdowns every season he’s been the Chiefs starting quarterback but has zero this year. This is the week for that trend to get back on track and at +350, I’ll be able to reduce my typical bet size while not reducing the ROI. Remember, this is a “lotto pick” which carries much greater risk, hence the reduction in lower bet size.
Giants vs. Eagles Anytime Touchdown Picks
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD +150
Boston Scott Anytime TD +188
Lotto Pick: Darius Slayton Anytime TD +300
Given the spread, low point total, and Giants frequent failure to eclipse 17 points, I’m only willing to spend my hard earned money on Eagles props for this game (besides the lotto pick). Jalen Hurts is a TD scoring machine but with odds of -225, it’s not worth betting on. Bettors would have to fork over $225 just for the chance to earn back $100. Same with A.J. Brown at -138. The ROI just isn’t available with Brown and Hurts.
Instead, I’m looking at two plus money props that have the statistical trends to back them up and the ROI on their side. The Giants defense gave up two touchdowns to Jimmy Graham and Juwan Johnson last week and Goedert is much more involved in the Eagles’ passing attack than the Saints’ tight ends. With Devonta Smith a bit banged up and A.J. Brown getting the primary focus of the Giants secondary, look for Goedert to be heavily involved in Philly’s offense on Christmas.
Some players just excel against particular opponents and that’s the case with Boston Scott against the Giants. Scott has scored 16 touchdowns across four seasons, nine of them have come against the New York. In fact, Scott has scored against the Giants in seven out of his eight matchups.
No team has allowed more touchdowns (24) to opposing wide receivers than the Eagles. At least one receiver has cross the goal-line in every game against Philly since Week 6. Now this is a lotto pick because the Giants don’t really have a dominant receiver but Slayton is the type of route runner that has exposed Philadelphia’s secondary this year. Remember, lotto picks don’t get the same bet size as our traditional prop bets.
Ravens vs. 49ers Anytime Touchdown Picks
Deebo Samuel Anytime TD -120
Lamar Jackson Anytime TD +125
Isiah Likely Anytime TD +275
When talking about the San Francisco 49ers it’s mandatory to bring up Christian McCaffrey. Not only is he an MVP candidate like his quarterback Brock Purdy but he’s the most consistent touchdown scorer in the entire NFL. He has 20 scores this year and found the endzone three times last week. But with odds of -350, the sportsbooks are essentially telling bettors to not even bother trying to make money off McCaffrey to score.
Instead, I’m focusing on another 49ers TD machine in Deebo Samuel. The versatile wide receiver is on one heck of a scoring streak with eight touchdowns in his last four games. Though this isn’t a plus money prop, the vig at -120 is still worth the $100 you’d win in return for a Samuel score.
The 49ers are known for their stout defense and though they have allowed just one quarterback to run for a TD against them all year it was another mobile passer in Jalen Hurts. I like Jackson’s chances of making a few of the 49ers elite pass rushers look silly in the backfield and instead scamper for a score from inside the 10 yard line.
Isiah Likely has filled in very nicely for the injured Mark Andrews. The second-year tight end scored in each of his last two games and the 49ers have allowed tight ends to score in back-to-back weeks. The fact he’s at +275 couple with his ability to score and San Francisco’s apparent vulnerability is enough to make this my favorite prop of the week!
